Remembering the world’s most vulnerable when the numbers don’t stack up

Since the pandemic began, we have all got used to interrogating the numbers, analysing the statistics, interpretating case rates and other data. It’s been a real learning curve for me.

In the UK, we are lucky to have excellent surveillance data on Covid-19 as well as testing rates and other indicators, informing us just how serious the situation is. The system isn’t perfect, but we can have confidence in it.

In other countries, it is not so easy to be sure exactly what is going on.

In July last year, the organisation I lead, the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC) launched a Coronavirus Appeal for the world’s most vulnerable people, living in fragile states beset by conflict and climate issues such as severe droughts and flooding. When disaster strikes in countries like these that don’t have the capacity to respond, we come together with 14 leading UK aid agencies to raise funds quickly and efficiently, enabling these charities to rapidly scale up their operations on the ground.

We predicted that the pandemic would hit displaced people in fragile states such as Yemen and Syria hard. These are people living in camps or informal settlements far from their former homes because violence has forced them out. They are already weakened by hunger, making them especially vulnerable to the virus. Many live in places where war, natural disasters and grinding poverty have shattered health facilities, eroded livelihoods, and left access to clean water, soap, sanitation or the space for physical distancing out of reach.

As we approach the first anniversary of the global pandemic being declared, the DEC wanted to explore just what has happened in the Appeal countries – Afghanistan, DR Congo, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria and Yemen, together with the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh – as Covid-19 ravaged the world.

The difficulty in doing so is that these states do not have the same kind of surveillance, data collection or laboratory capacity that we do. It’s hard to see the true picture. You could be forgiven for thinking that Somalia does not have a problem with Covid-19 as there were only 130 deaths reported until the end of January.

In reality, the raw figures underestimate the huge impact that coronavirus has had in terms of cases and deaths. Bodies like the World Health Organization and others have worked hard to improve testing and lab capacity but the aid agencies which make up the DEC coalition say the numbers are underreported, with stigma and reluctance to attend health facilities factors too in the undercounting.

And communities are often so difficult to access because of war or their remote location, with little internet, that it is hard for the rest of the world to see what is going on through eye witness accounts or media reports. An exception is Yemen, where the graveyards filmed from the air have multiplied in size since the pandemic began. That’s why the DEC wanted to shine a light on the situation with its report BREAKING POINT: How the coronavirus pandemic will push fragile states towards catastrophe in 2021 which examines the impact of Covid-19 in these six fragile states and what 2021 holds for their people.

It also gives an overview of how appeal funds were spent in the first three months of the DEC-funded humanitarian response.

Through interviews with country directors of the DEC’s member charities directly facing the realities on the ground, we heard that the world’s most fragile states are on a knife-edge. People are coping with the coronavirus pandemic as best they can, but Covid-19 has magnified all the problems they face.

First there is the virus itself. Health systems have been overwhelmed in many places and health workers – already scarce in many places – have been pushed to the limit, desperate for PPE to protect themselves. Routine vaccinations and mother and baby clinics have been disrupted.

At the same time, the secondary effects of the pandemic have in many places been even more cruel, crippling economies, and making the world’s poorest people even poorer. This year the UN-coordinated Global Humanitarian Overview estimates 235 million people will need humanitarian assistance to survive. That is a 40 per cent increase in a year, and it’s almost entirely down to Covid-19.

People who have already suffered so much are now facing almost impossible challenges in the face of the virus. Many have little choice but to ignore stay-at-home orders designed to keep them safe. When faced with hunger, they have to go out to find work to feed their families, and masks may not be affordable. Sometimes measures to guard against Covid-19, such as regular handwashing, force people to go out, as many homes and shelters do not have running water.

In northwest Syria, where a decade of war has left more than 2.7 million people displaced, the virus is picking off victims in camps open to the elements in a bitter winter. In Yemen, Covid-19 comes on top of conflict which has brought with it the threat of famine. The spectre of famine also looms in places such as Afghanistan, DRC and South Sudan.

In compiling this report, the DEC carried out a survey of its 14 members, polling country directors and other senior staff. The results are grave: 98 per cent agreed that the pandemic had worsened the humanitarian crisis in their respective countries, and 92 per cent expected it to get much worse in the coming months.

There is some good news. Thanks to the generosity of the UK public, the DEC has to date raised £34.5 million through its Coronavirus Appeal. With these funds, humanitarians have brought life-saving assistance and protection to vulnerable people. But humanitarian needs continue to grow just as international funding is being cut. We fear the worst is still to come, and in the coming months we will face difficult choices about how to prioritise our assistance so that we can reduce suffering as effectively as possible.

With the continued support of donors – large and small; corporate, government and individual – we can ease these difficult humanitarian choices. Together, we can save lives, protect health workers, and set up the infrastructure needed to face off this and future crises.

Community members remain resilient and are fighting this pandemic as best they can. But they are doing so against the odds, and we must stand by them in their darkest hour of need – whatever the numbers do or don’t say. If you are able to, please donate at www.dec.org.uk

Saleh Saeed
Chief Executive, Disasters Emergency Committee
https://www.dec.org.uk/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/saleh-saeed-53468b25/
Twitter: @salehsaeed

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Remembering the world’s most vulnerable when the numbers don’t stack up

Since the pandemic began, we have all got used to interrogating the numbers, analysing the statistics, interpretating case rates and other data. It’s been a real learning curve for me.

In the UK, we are lucky to have excellent surveillance data on Covid-19 as well as testing rates and other indicators, informing us just how serious the situation is. The system isn’t perfect, but we can have confidence in it.

In other countries, it is not so easy to be sure exactly what is going on.

In July last year, the organisation I lead, the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC) launched a Coronavirus Appeal for the world’s most vulnerable people, living in fragile states beset by conflict and climate issues such as severe droughts and flooding. When disaster strikes in countries like these that don’t have the capacity to respond, we come together with 14 leading UK aid agencies to raise funds quickly and efficiently, enabling these charities to rapidly scale up their operations on the ground.

We predicted that the pandemic would hit displaced people in fragile states such as Yemen and Syria hard. These are people living in camps or informal settlements far from their former homes because violence has forced them out. They are already weakened by hunger, making them especially vulnerable to the virus. Many live in places where war, natural disasters and grinding poverty have shattered health facilities, eroded livelihoods, and left access to clean water, soap, sanitation or the space for physical distancing out of reach.

As we approach the first anniversary of the global pandemic being declared, the DEC wanted to explore just what has happened in the Appeal countries – Afghanistan, DR Congo, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria and Yemen, together with the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh – as Covid-19 ravaged the world.

The difficulty in doing so is that these states do not have the same kind of surveillance, data collection or laboratory capacity that we do. It’s hard to see the true picture. You could be forgiven for thinking that Somalia does not have a problem with Covid-19 as there were only 130 deaths reported until the end of January.

In reality, the raw figures underestimate the huge impact that coronavirus has had in terms of cases and deaths. Bodies like the World Health Organization and others have worked hard to improve testing and lab capacity but the aid agencies which make up the DEC coalition say the numbers are underreported, with stigma and reluctance to attend health facilities factors too in the undercounting.

And communities are often so difficult to access because of war or their remote location, with little internet, that it is hard for the rest of the world to see what is going on through eye witness accounts or media reports. An exception is Yemen, where the graveyards filmed from the air have multiplied in size since the pandemic began. That’s why the DEC wanted to shine a light on the situation with its report BREAKING POINT: How the coronavirus pandemic will push fragile states towards catastrophe in 2021 which examines the impact of Covid-19 in these six fragile states and what 2021 holds for their people.

It also gives an overview of how appeal funds were spent in the first three months of the DEC-funded humanitarian response.

Through interviews with country directors of the DEC’s member charities directly facing the realities on the ground, we heard that the world’s most fragile states are on a knife-edge. People are coping with the coronavirus pandemic as best they can, but Covid-19 has magnified all the problems they face.

First there is the virus itself. Health systems have been overwhelmed in many places and health workers – already scarce in many places – have been pushed to the limit, desperate for PPE to protect themselves. Routine vaccinations and mother and baby clinics have been disrupted.

At the same time, the secondary effects of the pandemic have in many places been even more cruel, crippling economies, and making the world’s poorest people even poorer. This year the UN-coordinated Global Humanitarian Overview estimates 235 million people will need humanitarian assistance to survive. That is a 40 per cent increase in a year, and it’s almost entirely down to Covid-19.

People who have already suffered so much are now facing almost impossible challenges in the face of the virus. Many have little choice but to ignore stay-at-home orders designed to keep them safe. When faced with hunger, they have to go out to find work to feed their families, and masks may not be affordable. Sometimes measures to guard against Covid-19, such as regular handwashing, force people to go out, as many homes and shelters do not have running water.

In northwest Syria, where a decade of war has left more than 2.7 million people displaced, the virus is picking off victims in camps open to the elements in a bitter winter. In Yemen, Covid-19 comes on top of conflict which has brought with it the threat of famine. The spectre of famine also looms in places such as Afghanistan, DRC and South Sudan.

In compiling this report, the DEC carried out a survey of its 14 members, polling country directors and other senior staff. The results are grave: 98 per cent agreed that the pandemic had worsened the humanitarian crisis in their respective countries, and 92 per cent expected it to get much worse in the coming months.

There is some good news. Thanks to the generosity of the UK public, the DEC has to date raised £34.5 million through its Coronavirus Appeal. With these funds, humanitarians have brought life-saving assistance and protection to vulnerable people. But humanitarian needs continue to grow just as international funding is being cut. We fear the worst is still to come, and in the coming months we will face difficult choices about how to prioritise our assistance so that we can reduce suffering as effectively as possible.

With the continued support of donors – large and small; corporate, government and individual – we can ease these difficult humanitarian choices. Together, we can save lives, protect health workers, and set up the infrastructure needed to face off this and future crises.

Community members remain resilient and are fighting this pandemic as best they can. But they are doing so against the odds, and we must stand by them in their darkest hour of need – whatever the numbers do or don’t say. If you are able to, please donate at www.dec.org.uk

Saleh Saeed
Chief Executive, Disasters Emergency Committee
https://www.dec.org.uk/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/saleh-saeed-53468b25/
Twitter: @salehsaeed

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